US Continues to Lose Soybean Export Share

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0:00 Intro + Soybean Demand Share
2:55 Strike in Argentina
5:27 US Weather Update
7:19 Crop Progress / Planting
8:40 Winter Wheat Conditions
10:03 US Grain Shipments

Decline in US Share of China's Soybean Market: This year, the US share of China's soybean market is expected to further decline, partly due to a bumper soybean crop in Argentina. Argentina is forecast to produce 50mmt of soybeans, double last year's production during a historic drought. Additionally, competitive prices from the Brazilian soybean crop will also hold a significant share of China's market. Last year, the US share of the Chinese market fell to 24%, with Chinese traders anticipating further decline due to concerns surrounding the US presidential election. 🌱📉


Strike of Argentine Oilseed Union: The Argentine Oilseed Crushers Union initiated a strike on Monday in response to a bill introduced by Argentina's president, Javier Milei. The bill proposes measures to reduce the minimum salary subject to income tax and includes labor reform. Milei aims to address high inflation and public spending since taking office in December, but opposition from the center-left and unions has impeded progress. The strike is expected to continue through today as Congress debates the legislation. ⚖️🇦🇷


Rainfall Patterns in US Corn Belt: Rainfall moved over far eastern areas of the US Corn Belt this morning, with more rain forecasted for Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northern Missouri over the next 5 days. These rains may return to the western Corn Belt and other regions by Thursday, potentially hindering planting progress but also helping to alleviate drought conditions. 🌧️🌽


Progress of US Corn and Soybean Planting: US corn planting is ahead of schedule, with 27% of the crop planted nationally as of Sunday, surpassing the 22% average. Similarly, soybean planting progress is ahead, with 18% of the crop planted compared to the 10% average. However, some states still lag behind in planting progress, while others are well ahead. 🌱🚜


Winter Wheat Ratings and Crop Progress: US winter wheat ratings declined slightly last week, with 49% of the crop rated good-excellent. Despite this decline, the rating was in line with expectations and the highest for this time of year since 2020. Meanwhile, the spring wheat crop is progressing well, with 34% planted compared to the 19% average. 🌾📉


US Grain Shipments: Corn shipments declined last week, with 1.2mmt inspected for export, down from the previous week and compared to the same period last year. Similarly, soybean shipments were soft, while wheat shipments saw a slight increase compared to the previous week and a significant rise compared to the same period last year. 🚢🌾


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