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The U.S.-China trade war, ignited on April 9 with tariffs at 145%, stems from mutual strategic misjudgments. The U.S. overestimated China’s economic strength, triggering a premature conflict but facing minimal hardship. Conversely, China’s underestimation of U.S. resolve has accelerated its economic fragility, with no viable countermeasures. China’s economy, weakened by a decade of deliberate stagnation, wealth inequality, and export dependency, lacks the resilience for this showdown. The Chinese government’s social suppression model is unprepared, while traditional economic mobilization contradicts its authoritarian goals. The U.S., under Trump, aims to dismantle globalization, halt purchasing power exports, and revive manufacturing, backed by a resolute anti-China cabinet. China’s failure to grasp the conflict’s severity risks economic collapse within the year, potentially leading to unrest but offering a chance for renewal.
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