Episode 17: From "Coming in Hot" to "Tucking Tail": A Birdseye View

#inventorymyth #housingbubble #housingmarket #housingmarketcrash #commercialrealestate #silentdepression #2008 #gfc #creditcrunch #bankingcrisis #lossmitigation

M3 Market Update is a weekly review of the current state of housing (including long and short-term rental) and commercial real estate with relevant data and drivers. Not investment advice.

In this week's episode we talk about the complete disconnect from reality I see here in the Miami area in terms of prices for new builds, including one crazy luxury listing. Where oh where will these rich people come from? And, what of our middle class?

Link to Substack:

https://open.substack.com/pub/m3melody/p/from-coming-in-hot-to-tucking-tail?r=1znp5e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Weekly Stats for Listings:

Listings for Sale

Listings are down 1.59% in the cities I track this week, and I have started to notice a pattern that listings dip at the end of the month. This is borne out when looking in detail at listings where people pull them off the market at the end of the month so they don’t show aging over 30 days. So, will be interesting to see next week’s numbers.

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Week-over-Week (8/27-9/3)

Rosemary Beach 9.68%
Cape May 5.88%
Westchester County 2.49%
Salt Lake City 2.37%
Galveston 1.85%

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Compared to 10-week Average

Rosemary Beach 30.77% (#1 for 2 weeks in a row)
Bozeman 7.75%
San Ramon 7.22% (down from #2)
Westchester County 6.73%
Augusta 6.51%

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory from Start (1/1/23)

San Ramon 118.33%
Coeur d’Alene 85.49%
Denver 55.04% (up from #4)
Rosemary Beach 54.55% (up from #9)
San Francisco 51.72% (down from #3)
Austin 48.46% (down from #5)
Galveston 46.34%
San Jose 44.72% (down from #6)
Bozeman 40.22% (up from #10)
Portland 36.87% (down from #8)

Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings (8/27-9/3)

Listings for rent (unlike listings for sale) went up approximately 1% week-over-week

Charlotte 55.53% (this looks like a data issue, but still up 13.53% to average)
Winter Garden 17.53%
Brattleboro 17.39%
Portsmouth 14.29%
El Cajon 11.35%

Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings to 10-week Average

Encinitas 38.67% (up from #2)
Galveston 26.54% (up from # 5)
Rosemary Beach 24.35% (down from #1, but listings for sale up)
Augusta 21.42%
Portsmouth 20.00%


General Reference & Recommendations:

1) #silentdepression - For a review of what's really been going on in the economy since 2007 to understand the path of housing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcl1RP1ziNo. Follow @emilkalinowski on Twitter or YouTube
2) Eurodollar University YouTube Daily Briefing: https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity
3) The term Eurodollar sounds kinda weird and the concepts are complicated, so I recommend going back to the very beginning where they lay it out very simply. This is a MASTER CLASS in monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPlvXuDqxBc
4) And for an episode on some of the myths surrounding the Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2AD-0r0Vlk
5) The Fourth Turning: https://www.amazon.com/The-Fourth-Turning-audiobook/dp/B00005UPTV/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=377825614251&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9005974&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=7239185417261577819&hvtargid=kwd-513996878352&hydadcr=7465_9611852&keywords=the+fourth+turning+neil+howe&qid=1685491236&sr=8-1
6) A Brief History of Doom: https://www.audible.com/pd/A-Brief-History-of-Doom-Audiobook/B07WP67Q3G?source_code=GPAGBSH0508140001&ipRedirectOverride=true&gclid=CjwKCAjwhdWkBhBZEiwA1ibLmG2_fihIT0EOL8FmQxsjpXK7LX77Kezt6_eR2Q-RKrv0Tzpw0UE18RoCxcQQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
7) Bloomberg Article on CRE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/office-owners-get-dire-warning-rebound-unlikely-before-2040

FHFA Home Price Index: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/HPI_2023Q1.pdf

Case Schiller Home Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA


Please reach out to me with questions or comments:
Twitter: @m3_melody
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melody-wright-44204a4/
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com


Did you miss our previous article...
https://trendinginrealestate.com/where-to-buy/buying-a-home-in-3-months-heres-your-gameplan