Ukraine’s F-16s: Too Little, Too Late

- US-made F-16s will arrive in Ukraine much later than anticipated and in much smaller numbers than expected;

- The Western media has assumed F-16s might help Ukraine bolster its flagging air defenses against both Russian cruise missiles and Russian fighter-bombers dropping stand-off guided glide bombs, but much more likely the handful of aircraft will be used to continue Ukraine’s symbolic air-launched cruise missile strikes;

- The Western media has admitted that air forces transitioning from Soviet-era warplanes to the F-16 can take years to do properly, rushing Ukraine’s transition will result in the same predictable losses of equipment due to ineffective operators that Western main battle tanks transferred to Ukraine suffered;

- Romania has established a “pilot training hub” for NATO and Ukrainian pilots operating F-16 warplanes;

- Following revelations from leaked conversations of German military officers of NATO troops on the ground operating complex Western equipment, there exists the possibility NATO pilots could operate Ukrainian-marked F-16s;

- Russia’s larger number of warplanes and advanced integrated air defense capabilities will prevent small numbers of F-16s from significantly changing the course of the conflict strategically;

References:

New York Times - Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few (March 11, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world/europe/ukraine-f16-pilots.html
Air & Space Forces Magazine - Romania Is a Model for Training Ukraine’s Pilots to Fly F-16s (August 2023):
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/romania-is-a-model-for-training-ukraines-pilots-to-fly-f-16s/
The War Zone - This Is How Long It Would Really Take Ukraine’s Pilots To Convert To F-16s (February 2023):
https://www.twz.com/this-is-how-long-it-would-really-take-ukraines-pilots-to-convert-to-f-16s
Reuters - Romania opens F-16 pilot training hub for NATO allies, Ukraine (November 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/romania-opens-f-16-pilot-training-hub-nato-allies-ukraine-2023-11-13/
Guardian - British soldiers ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine, says German military leak (March 4, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/04/british-soldiers-on-ground-ukraine-german-military-leak
US Department of Defense Inspector General - Press Release: Evaluation of Sustainment Strategies for the Patriot Air Defense Systems Transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (DODIG-2024-056) and Evaluation of the DoD's Sustainment Plan for Bradley, Stryker, and Abrams Armored Weapon Systems (February 20, 2024):
https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/3681630/press-release-evaluation-of-sustainment-strategies-for-the-patriot-air-defense/
RAND Corporation - F-16s Are No Magic Bullet for Ukraine, but They Are a Game Changer with the Right Munitions (October 2023):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/10/f-16s-are-no-magic-bullet-for-ukraine-but-they-are.html

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