The Real Reason Real Estate Still Hasn't Crashed

Are home prices going to crash? More homes are sitting, sellers are offering credits, and builders are using incentives. But a lower asking price can still leave you with a payment that feels expensive.

👉 Download your free Homebuyer Playbook:
https://canva.link/farrell-team-homebuyer-playbook

I explain four forces holding home prices up nationally, where the cracks are showing, and what would have to change for prices to fall further.

The national headline, the deal you negotiate, and the cost of owning your home are three different numbers. I share a $1.45 million purchase example to show how seller credits and a temporary mortgage buydown can change the deal without changing the recorded sale price.

We also look at homeowners holding onto low mortgage rates, how today’s lending compares with 2008, and why buyers are still purchasing despite affordability challenges.

If you’re deciding whether to buy or wait, focus on the specific home, the seller’s situation, and your full monthly cost. The payment needs to work without counting on a future refinance.

💬 Tell me your city and what you’re seeing: price cuts, seller credits, multiple offers, or homes sitting.

CHAPTERS
0:00 Why haven’t home prices crashed?
0:42 Builder incentives and hidden negotiating room
1:59 A $1.45 million purchase: seller credit vs. price cut
3:10 Why many homeowners can wait
5:34 How today’s market compares with 2008
7:29 Who is still buying?
8:24 National home prices vs. your neighborhood
9:30 What could push home prices lower?
10:30 What I’d check before buying
11:25 The Tuesday Test: life after closing
11:48 What this means for your home purchase

John Farrell | Mortgage Lender & Strategist
NMLS #374639
Equal Housing Opportunity.

CORRECTION
At 1:42, the figure cited is 44.7%, or roughly 45%, rather than 50%.

DISCLAIMER
This video is for general educational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend. It does not provide individualized financial, tax, or legal advice.

Market data reflects the sources and periods cited. Rates, pricing, loan programs, terms, and guidelines are subject to change without notice. Any payment or savings examples are illustrative, depend on the assumptions stated, and may not reflect your actual costs.

Loan eligibility and approval depend on underwriting, credit, income, assets, and property requirements. Not all applicants will qualify. Restrictions may apply. Review your circumstances and current loan terms with a qualified professional before making a decision.